Combination of smog and delayed start to the ‘dry monsoon’ season to blame
Maldives Meteorological Service has reported that haze and storms are set to continue across the Maldives before a return to more seasonal good weather. The unusually bad weather this month has been characterized by above-average levels of rainfall and smog. Typically, the climate in January in the Maldives is much sunnier, as it is dry season.
Some brief pockets of sunshine – particularly in the southern atolls – did appear, but they were punctuated by long periods of heavy rain throughout the month. A few areas of the Maldives were even affected by severe flooding at the start of January, while many of the atolls were pummelled by strong storms again last weekend.
Today, Maldives Meteorological Service shared a photo (above) comparing the current weather in the capital city, Male’, with a photo from July 2024. It shows the overcast skyline of Male’ on January 30 in contrast to brilliant blue skies six months ago.
What is most notable about the contrasting images is that July 2024 was sunnier than January 2025, yet July is normally much rainier than January. That is because July falls in the middle of the rainy season (the Southwest Monsoon), which runs roughly from April/May to October/November. Currently, we are in the period known as the ‘dry monsoon’ (or the Northeast Monsoon). This should be the time when the Maldives sees some of its finest weather.
In the post on X, accompanying the images, Maldives Meteorological Service also posted an update, stating: “Visibility across the country has reduced to 2km [1.2miles] due to the haze”.
The haze the organisation refers to is smog (polluted air) which blows across the Maldives and neighbouring Sri Lanka from India at this time of year, as reported by The Edition. In recent years, the extent of the pollution has grown worse. However, the storms that herald the start of the Northeast Monsoon would have usually helped reduce the smog much more by now.
There are almost 200 resorts and guesthouses in the region around Male’ (Male’ Atoll), although as we previously reported, the weather is highly localised in the Maldives and bad weather does not usually last for long. Therefore, it’s possible to see rain on one island while another nearby is dry, or for extended periods of sunshine to follow a spell of rain, even in the middle of the rainy season. So, some tourists can be luckier with the weather than others, particularly if they aren’t on a short trip of just a few days. However, big storms like those occurring this month are more likely to affect larger parts of the atolls (and hence many more islands), and for longer.
It’s normal for a short burst of storms to occur due to the wind direction changing at the start of both monsoon seasons. However, the beginning of the current Northeast Monsoon should have occurred last year. It was delayed by three to four weeks, which is partly why the ‘changeable’ weather has been drawn out through January 2025. Forecasters have also noted that the Maldives is experiencing increasing incidences of extreme weather due to climate change.
Maldives Meteorological Service (MMS) correctly forecasted that the Maldives would receive more rainfall than normal. In its January 2025 Rainfall and Temperature Outlook, meteorologists predicted: “Rainfall is expected to below-normal over southernmost atolls and above-normal over rest of the country. The average temperature is expected to be slightly higher than usual.
“Note: Normal = Amount of rainfall between 90% – 110% of the average for the period. Above normal = Amount of rainfall more than 110% of the average for the period. Below Normal = Amount of rainfall less than 90% of the average for the period.”
The Maldives typically sees an average of only 83mm (just over 3″) of rain in January. However, in Male’ on January 2-3, a record 160mm (over 6″) of rain fell in just 24 hours. That is twice as much rain falling in one day as should have fallen during the entire month. Therefore, the weather this January has been unusually bad in comparison with previous years. However, the Maldives Meteorological Service says the outlook is likely to improve somewhat next week. The organisation publishes most of its weather alerts here.
